D-Loupe Journal
Supply Contracts, Demand Shifts, and a Diamond Market Being Redrawn
India’s export decline, De Beers’ sightholder cuts, and rising premiums for fancy shapes marked a week of major repositioning across the global diamond pipeline.
The week delivered a clear message: the global diamond pipeline is narrowing at both ends. Major supply sources are exiting or under pressure, fewer buyers are being authorized to purchase directly, and the midstream is recalibrating between gold momentum and polished uncertainty.
For decision-makers, this looks less like a normal cyclical pause and more like a structural repositioning.
The Pulse
1. India’s Export Drop Signals a Midstream Reset
The bottom line: If your supply chain runs through Surat, your Q2 delivery schedule may need immediate review.
India’s March polished exports fell 69% year over year to $166 million after returns, while rough imports fell 45% to $720 million. This appears to be more than seasonal softness. It suggests a deliberate pullback by the world’s primary cutting hub.
- Factory utilization in Surat is approaching multi-year lows.
- Liquidity conditions for midstream operators remain under pressure.
- Polished supply agreements for Q2 should be reassessed immediately.
The contrast is important. Indian domestic demand tells a different story: Titan reported 46% year-on-year jewelry sales growth in Q4, driven by gold and studded categories. Indian consumers are still buying, but that demand is not flowing through the export channel in the same way.
2. De Beers Reshapes the Rough Market
The bottom line: If you are one of the roughly 25 sightholders being cut, your sourcing model may need to be rebuilt before year-end.
De Beers is reducing its authorized sightholder roster from approximately 70 buyers to 45-50, a contraction of roughly one third. The move concentrates rough allocation among fewer, larger players and raises the barrier for smaller or displaced buyers.
- Remaining sightholders may gain leverage, while displaced buyers will need to consider secondary tenders, auctions, other producer channels, or the open market.
- The move reinforces De Beers’ shift toward margin discipline over volume.
- Secondary-market rough premiums may widen if displaced demand moves into alternative channels.
At the same time, Rio Tinto’s Diavik mine ceased production on March 24 after 23 years and more than 150 million carats. New Diavik production has ended, making remaining Diavik-origin goods finite inventory. Provenance-branded programs built on Diavik goods may now need a transition plan.
3. Producers Diverge as Exceptional Goods Outperform Commercial Volume
The bottom line: The market is rewarding specialization and putting pressure on producers that depend heavily on commercial-quality volume.
- Petra Diamonds posted a 64% rise in Q3 sales to $68 million and is marketing a rare 41.82 ct blue diamond while retaining exposure to polished upside. That strategy gives Petra a higher-margin opportunity if the stone performs well.
- Mountain Province closed 2025 with sales down 42% to $112 million and losses widening 246% to $200 million. Mid-tier miner distress appears to be accelerating, which may increase the likelihood of further supply consolidation.
The divergence is instructive. Producers with access to exceptional goods appear better positioned, while those dependent on commercial-quality volume remain under significant pressure.
4. Gold Leads, Diamonds Follow: The Retail Recalibration
The bottom line: If your APAC retail strategy still leads with diamonds, gold-led competitors may already be better aligned with current consumer demand.
Chow Sang Sang posted 6% revenue growth to $2.9 billion and a 113% profit increase to $219 million in 2025, driven largely by gold pricing strength. Diamond allocation within Greater China retail appears to be under active review.
At the same time, fancy-shaped diamonds are building a clearer premium position. Elongated cushions are trading at a 20% to 25% premium over square cuts in the 2 ct-plus segment. Marquises are leading pricing, while princess cuts remain weak.
The message for cutting floors is clear: production planning should reflect where liquidity is moving, especially toward elongated outlines.
Global Expo Watch
JCK Las Vegas 2026, running June 2-5 at The Venetian Expo, remains one of the quarter’s most important industry events. With De Beers’ sightholder restructuring now confirmed and Diavik’s closure reshaping Canadian supply, sourcing conversations at JCK are likely to carry unusual urgency.
Meetings booked early may matter more than casual booth visits once the show opens.
Week Ahead
The structural contraction is not only a sign of stress. It is also forcing the market to reset around stronger operators, tighter supply, and more precise planning.
Fewer major supply sources, fewer authorized buyers, and sharper retail segmentation all point in the same direction: margin is moving toward companies that plan with precision.
Plan accordingly.