Retail Turns Hopeful While the Recovery Shrinks to Its Smallest Stones

The contradiction defined the week. US retailers talked up the holidays — Signet, Macy's and Deloitte all pointed to firming demand — even as the polished recovery narrowed further into the smallest stones and rough held near multi-year lows. The pull is real; it is also getting choosier.

Producers Hold the Line as Rough Stays Cheap

De Beers' realized rough price held at $110/ct through the week, still down 37% year over year in Q2. The discipline behind that number sharpened: De Beers' first-half revenue fell 19% and Alrosa's 36%, with both defending price by holding volume back rather than selling into weakness. Yet the floor looks like it is holding, not cracking — Gem Diamonds returned to a first-half profit as rough firmed. India's August polished exports, at $925M and down 4.93% year over year, showed the midstream still buying lean and selective, but a marked step up from July's 18% year-on-year collapse.

The Recovery Keeps Shrinking to Small Goods

The week's clearest signal was the widening RAPI split. Early in the week the index had 1ct goods up 0.63% and 0.50ct up 2.52% on the month; by midweek the gap had stretched to 0.45% versus 3.97%. The money is rotating ever further down the size curve into affordable, commercial goods — the stones that compete most directly with lab-grown. The 1ct index turning positive for the first time in over a year is a genuine milestone, but larger-stone strength stays unproven: price finer goods against real bids, not the index.

Retail's Hopeful Read Meets a Selective Consumer

The demand signals came thick this week. Signet's Joan Hilson pointed to firming natural-diamond demand into the holidays; Macy's raised its full-year outlook citing fine-jewelry strength; Deloitte forecast continued US holiday-spending growth. Set against Bain's warning of softer jewelry demand — with younger buyers the relative bright spot — the message is that the mid-market is holding while trophy purchases are not the story. Record gold, ranging near $4,335–4,452/oz across the week and easing about 3% on the month but still historically high, reinforced the shift: makers keep trimming metal weight and leaning on stone content, per Metals Focus. On the supply side, Surat's lab-grown association pressed for pricing discipline as margins tighten, and Sarine opened a GCAL grading lab in Mumbai, handing dealers back days of working capital once lost to shipping parcels abroad. A softer rupee (USD/INR 95.96, +0.89% on the week) quietly cushioned Indian exporters' dollar margins.

מה לעקוב בשבוע הקרוב / The Week Ahead

• Jewellery & Gem WORLD Hong Kong runs through Sep 20 at HKCEC — Asia's bellwether fair and the clearest read on Far East Q4 demand; watch order flow in smaller commercial goods.
• IJS Istanbul opens Sep 30 — the next regional demand gauge.
• The natural-versus-lab-grown spread at the small-stone end, where Surat's pricing-discipline push now meets the polished recovery in the same sizes.
• US holiday sell-through (Signet, Macy's): year-end results set Q1 2027 restocking — watch per-transaction and value-seeking composition, not just headline growth.
• The next RAPI monthly print, for whether the 1ct recovery broadens beyond the smallest goods.