Small Stones Lead a Quiet Polished Recovery as Gold Pulls at the Retail Wallet

De Beers' average selling price held near $110/ct in Q2 2026, roughly 37% below a year ago, and Alrosa is advancing a state-backed domestic cutting cluster in Russia. Producers are limiting supply at the top of the pipeline, while Russian rough is being redirected closer to source, keeping feedstock structurally tight for non-sanctioned cutters.

RAPI rose 0.43% for 1 ct goods and 2.54% for 0.50 ct goods over the past month, with the sharper gains at the small end. The recovery is real but selective, with demand rotating into affordable carat weights rather than the top of the range.

Gold spiked to $4,472/oz, up 10.46% on the month, while the dollar eased against the rupee (-0.32%) and the shekel (-0.40%). Surging gold competes for the retail jewelry wallet and lifts mounting costs, even as a softer dollar gives Indian manufacturers modest margin relief.

The US extended its window for grandfathered Russian-origin diamonds to September 2027, giving holders of legacy stock more time to move documented goods without a forced discount. It also reinforces provenance tracing as a permanent operating cost rather than a temporary scramble.

The September fair season opens in days: The Jewellery Show London (Sep 2–3) is followed immediately by Vicenzaoro (Sep 4–8), giving the trade its first real read on autumn order books before the holiday build.