Smaller Polished Diamonds Lead the Recovery While the Macro Backdrop Stays Cautious

De Beers' most recent realized price sits at $110/ct in Q2 2026, still down 37% year over year, with no fresh rough-price print today. The baseline heading into the autumn buying season is still a defensive, buyer-led rough market.

RAPI firmed again this month, rising 0.43% for 1 ct goods and a stronger 2.54% for 0.50 ct goods. The recovery is real but concentrated in smaller, more liquid rounds, with demand rotating toward lower carat weights.

The rupee firmed 0.94% on the week to USD/INR 94.49, easing rough-import costs for Indian cutters, while the shekel softened 1.17% to USD/ILS 3.0076. Gold at $4,477/oz is up 5.45% on the month. Together with India's July polished exports of $876M, down 18% YoY, the data suggests pipeline demand remains thin beneath the firmer quotes.

Rapaport's August report shows the polished-price recovery broadening further, led again by the smaller round categories. This supports the RAPI reading. The signal to watch is whether firmer list prices convert into actual transaction prices, not only higher asking levels.

Vicenzaoro September (Sep 4–8, Vicenza) is underway, and Bijorhca Paris (Sep 5–7) runs this weekend, with the Bangkok Gems & Jewelry Fair opening Sep 8. Autumn show season will help set the tone for Q4 restocking.