Smaller Stones Carry the Polished Recovery While Demand Signals Stay Split

Gem Diamonds returned to a first-half profit as prices for larger, better-quality rough firmed, while De Beers' realized price still sits at $110/ct, down 37% year over year in Q2. This points to firming at the top end, not a broad rough-market turn.

RAPI rose 0.63% for 1 ct goods and 2.52% for 0.50 ct goods this month, with Rapaport's August report showing the recovery broadening in smaller rounds. Demand is real, but it remains concentrated in smaller, more liquid categories.

FX offered buyers little help this week (USD/INR 94.83, USD/ILS 3.0118, both moving less than 0.15%), while gold at $4,420/oz, up 1.35% this month, continues competing for the same consumer wallet and squeezing retail margins.

Bain forecasts a stronger U.S. holiday season overall but softer jewelry demand. Plan for traffic that skews toward entry price points rather than a broad luxury lift.

The Bangkok Gems & Jewelry Fair runs through Sep 12, followed by Jewellery & Gem WORLD Hong Kong on Sep 14–20. The Hong Kong show will help set the tone for Asian polished demand into Q4, so have goods and pricing ready.