Polished Recovery Holds, Led by Smaller Stones

De Beers' average realized price sits near $110/ct, roughly 37% below a year ago in Q2 2026, while major producers' first-half revenue fell sharply, with De Beers down 19% and Alrosa down 36% year over year. Producers are still defending price by holding back volume rather than selling into weakness. The rough overhang has not cleared.

RAPI firmed again this month: 1 ct goods rose 0.63% and 0.50 ct goods rose 2.52%, with smaller goods clearly leading and the 1 ct index turning positive for the first time in over a year. The recovery is real but concentrated in accessible sizes, so treat larger-stone strength as unproven.

The rupee softened to ₹95.44/$, up 1.01% on the week, while gold eased to $4,347/oz, down 0.82% on the month. A weaker rupee raises local costs for USD-priced rough, but can support export receipts, while cooling gold slightly reduces the competing safe-haven pull on discretionary jewelry budgets.

Surat's lab-grown association is pressing for pricing discipline as manufacturer margins tighten, according to Diamond World on Sep 10. This is an early sign that the lab-grown diamond segment is trying to slow its own price decline. Watch the natural-versus-synthetic spread at the small-stone end, where the two compete most directly.

Jewellery & Gem WORLD Hong Kong opens Sep 14 at AsiaWorld-Expo and Sep 16 at HKCEC. It is Asia's key September sentiment gauge and the next real read on holiday-season restocking; the Bangkok Gems & Jewelry Fair closes Sep 12.