Polished Firms into the Holidays While Rough Stays Soft at the Mine Gate

De Beers’ realized price sits at $110/ct, down 37% YoY in Q2. This is quarterly data, not today’s move, but the message holds: mine-gate pricing remains structurally weak even as polished firms, so midstream margin relief is coming from demand-side improvement, not from cheaper rough.

RAPI added 0.45% for 1 ct goods and 3.97% for 0.50 ct goods over the past month. The sharp half-carat move points to demand rotating into smaller, more affordable stones as retailers stock for the holiday season.

Gold near $4,398/oz, down 0.52% on the month, remains historically high, nudging manufacturers toward stone-set pieces over plain gold. USD/INR at 95.94, up 0.52% on the week, keeps import costs firm for Indian cutters, while a stronger dollar against the euro (USD/EUR +1.18% on the week) trims European buyers’ purchasing power.

Signet’s Joan Hilson flags firming natural-diamond demand into the holidays, echoed by Macy’s raising its full-year outlook on fine-jewelry strength and Deloitte’s upbeat U.S. holiday forecast. Together, these signals suggest U.S. retail is pulling natural stones into Q4.

Jewellery & Gem WORLD Hong Kong runs through Sep 20 at the HKCEC, making it the season’s first major price-discovery event. Watch Asian order flow for confirmation that the polished uptick is holding.