Rapaport Market Comment Flags Mixed RAPI and Resilient US Retail Ahead of Summer Slowdown
Rapaport’s weekly market commentary shows mixed April RAPI results, firmer pricing for larger 2 ct-plus goods, and solid U.S. retail demand heading into the seasonally slower summer period.
Read original on RapaportExecutive Summary
Rapaport’s May 7 market commentary describes a divided polished market: prices improved for smaller goods while 1 ct rounds declined. RAPI moved +2.6% for 0.30 ct, +1.3% for 0.50 ct, and -1.4% for 1 ct in April. Trading sentiment cooled as the industry entered the slower summer period, with manufacturers buying rough cautiously and Indian polishing volumes expected to dip during the summer vacation period. U.S. retail demand remained the strongest positive indicator: solid orders for 2 ct-plus F-I, VS-SI rounds and elongated fancy shapes, with 7 ct-plus D-IF stones in particularly tight supply ahead of the GemGenève show. Lower-color goods also attracted demand as some consumers looked for diamonds with a more visibly natural appearance, while elongated cushions, ovals, and marquises continued to outperform rounds at 2 ct and above. Brilliant Earth disclosed Q1 sales up 6% year over year to $100 million. Against this backdrop, Canadian producers remained pressured: Ekati owner Burgundy filed for CCAA protection just days earlier. The comment points to a market where recovery in larger-goods categories still depends heavily on continued supply discipline.
Industry Impact
The split in polished pricing, with smaller goods firming and 1 ct goods softening, has direct margin implications for manufacturers committed to mid-tier production. Retailers in the U.S. benefit from continued consumer demand for larger natural stones but must navigate tighter availability in D-IF 7 ct-plus goods. Cutters and tender participants should plan for lower trading liquidity through July and August. Producers that do not maintain supply discipline may prolong current market weakness, while those holding back rough are reinforcing the modest recovery in 2 ct-plus segments.
Next Steps
- Reprice 1 ct round inventory to reflect the April -1.4% RAPI move and adjust bid-ask spreads cautiously.
- Build 2 ct-plus F-I, VS-SI elongated fancy-shape inventory ahead of U.S. holiday memo demand.
- Tighten rough-buying discipline through summer and defer non-essential sight purchases.
- Engage U.S. retail partners on D-IF 7 ct-plus pre-orders to secure premiums associated with limited supply.
- Monitor Indian polishing throughput weekly as the seasonal vacation slowdown begins.