AWDC: Antwerp Polished Diamond Prices Rise 12% Year Over Year in Q1 2026

Executive Summary

The Antwerp World Diamond Centre released its Q1 2026 trade data, reporting that polished-diamond prices in Antwerp rose 12% year over year. The organization characterized the trend as gradual but cited it as a positive signal that polished demand may be beginning to outpace supply. Rough diamond prices moved in the opposite direction: the average price declined 27%, from $99 to $72 per carat, compared with Q1 2025. This reflects continued pressure from weak manufacturer demand and alternative sourcing. Total Antwerp trading volume rose 19%, with rough imports by volume up 36% and polished imports up 14%, suggesting traders may be building inventory ahead of an anticipated market turn. Value growth lagged volume growth, rising only 3.7%. The AWDC attributed the improvement partly to administrative reforms, including streamlined visa policies for foreign traders and recognition of diamond workers as shortage occupations. Middle East tensions have also redirected some trade flows toward Antwerp. For the pipeline, the key message is divergence: polished is firming while rough remains soft, creating a potential margin opportunity for manufacturers that secured rough at recent low prices.

Industry Impact

Midstream manufacturers that purchased rough during the January-March trough at $72 per carat stand to benefit most if polished pricing holds. Polished dealers and retailers should note that Antwerp inventory growth, including a 14% increase in polished imports, suggests additional supply may come to market. Downward pressure is possible if demand stalls. Rough producers continue to face price compression, with limited near-term signs of relief. Brands sourcing polished from Antwerp may encounter firmer pricing on reorders as the recovery develops.

Next Steps

1. Evaluate current polished inventory replacement cost. If rough purchased near $72 per carat supports standard polished goods, consider locking in supply while rough remains depressed.
2. Review sourcing agreements with Belgian wholesalers ahead of Q2, when Antwerp’s polished price recovery may translate into firmer offered prices.
3. Assess rough purchasing timing, given that a 27% rough price decline creates a significant margin opportunity, but only if polished prices hold through processing time.
4. Monitor AWDC Q2 trade data, expected in July 2026, for confirmation that the polished recovery is sustainable.
5. Consider Antwerp as an alternative sourcing hub if Middle East trade disruption continues redirecting goods to Belgium.