Deloitte Forecasts Growth in U.S. Holiday Retail Spending

Executive Summary

Deloitte’s annual U.S. holiday retail forecast, covered by Rapaport, sets expectations for consumer spending across the November-to-January period. It provides relevant context for jewelers and suppliers shaping holiday inventory and promotional plans. See the source for the projected figures and the behavioral details behind them.

Industry Impact

Macro holiday forecasts are blunt instruments for jewelers, but they help set the backdrop for promotional calendars. A projection of continued growth can encourage discounting and inventory builds across general retail, which indirectly shapes how much attention and wallet share discretionary jewelry can capture during the gifting weeks. The more useful signal usually sits in the composition of spending, including value-seeking behavior, online share, and average-transaction trends, because those describe how consumers spend, not just whether they spend. For the diamond pipeline, a firm headline paired with a cautious per-transaction shopper argues for sharper assortment planning and financing offers rather than simply carrying more inventory.

Next Steps

1. Separate the forecast's growth headline from its spending-behavior details before acting on it.
2. Stress-test your holiday plan against a scenario where traffic rises but average tickets fall.
3. Prioritize assortment breadth at accessible price points over deep stock in a few lines.
4. Prepare financing or layaway offers that protect margin.
5. Schedule a mid-season checkpoint to adjust reorders against actual sell-through.