India’s Polished-Diamond Exports Plunge 69% in March

Executive Summary

India’s polished-diamond export figures for March 2026 show a severe contraction across the pipeline. Total polished exports declined 69% year over year to $166 million after accounting for returns, a figure that excludes the inflationary effect of gross shipments and better reflects actual net trade flow. Rough diamond imports, a leading indicator of future cutting and polishing activity, fell 45% year over year to $720 million, confirming that Surat’s manufacturing base is operating well below capacity. The data points to a combination of pressures: weaker end-consumer demand in the United States and China, inventory overhang at the retail and wholesale levels, reduced access to trade finance as Indian banks tighten credit conditions for the gems and jewelry sector, and ongoing competition from lab-grown diamonds, which continues to pressure the commercial polished segment. The timing makes the decline especially significant, as March typically benefits from pre-summer stocking. Instead, a seasonally stronger month showed further contraction. The numbers also reflect the aftermath of geopolitical disruption in February and March, when U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions disrupted two of India’s key trading counterparts, Israel and Dubai, limiting both buyer activity and rough supply channels. GJEPC data indicates that these are not one-time distortions but part of a multi-month trend, with polished exports declining in five of the past six months on a year-over-year basis.

Industry Impact

The data indicates severe midstream retrenchment in the world’s primary cutting hub. Extended factory slowdowns in Surat are likely if weak polished exports and lower rough imports continue.

Next Steps

1. Reassess Q2 polished supply agreements.
2. Monitor Indian liquidity and factory utilization weekly.